Survivor: Winners at War has so far lived up to its nearly impossibly high expectations. Season 40, twenty winners, it was all set up to be a season of epic proportions. It was almost too good to be true. But then the season started. And it was good. It kept going. And it was still good, great even. This was even with the Edge of Extinction (possibly the worst creative decision in the show’s history, not that that’s a hot take).
The gameplay hasn’t been the best we’ve ever seen; I think that honor still goes to Heroes vs. Villains. But these players still have it. And they brought it. The characters and the stories have been top-tier. There’s been laughter and tears and inspiration. This season has had it all. And now it all comes down to Wednesday night’s finale. The chance to cement this season as one of the greatest in Survivor history…or one defined by one of the worst winners the show has ever seen. That’s what’s at stake. So let’s set the stage for the sure-to-be-explosive extra-long finale.
And Then There Were Five (Before There Were Six Again)
In The Actual Game
Ben Driebergen
Michele Fitzgerald
Sarah Lacina
Denise Staply
Tony Vlachos
The Edge
Natalie Anderson
Tyson Apostol
Danni Boatwright
Sophie Clarke
Jeremy Collins
Wendell Holland
Adam Klein
Yul Kwon
Amber Mariano
Rob Mariano
Parvati Shallow
Kim Spradlin-Wolfe
Nick Wilson
Ethan Zohn
Who’s Coming Back From The Edge?
Natalie has to be the odds-on favorite. She was able to buy three (THREE!) advantages for the upcoming battle back challenge. Just a friendly reminder that Natalie was the first person voted out, on DAY TWO. She didn’t even last two full days in the game! So of course she should have the best chance at getting back in the game. Let’s reward that person.
There are plenty of other great challenge competitors on the Edge, but Natalie’s massive head start should prove too much for anyone else to overcome. Barring an injury or something else major and unexpected, I just don’t see how Natalie doesn’t win. And that would set the stage for the potential DISASTER of the first boot actually winning Survivor.
Then What?
From here on out, I’m just going to assume Natalie comes back. She will be re-entering the game armed with an immunity idol and OVER A MONTH of bonding time with the jury. It makes me sick to think about, but if Natalie makes it to Final Tribal, she might actually stand a chance at winning. We saw in season 38 just how powerful that shared experience on the Edge can be. Depending on who you believe, there was even discussion on the Edge the first time around about what the returnee would have to do to win the game. Think about that. Step by step instructions on how to proceed and what moves to make. And that’s a winning game? Miss me with that, please.
But this isn’t a “Here’s What I Hope Happens” piece. So where could the game realistically go from there? The current Final Five will have some incredibly tough decisions to make. Tony and Sarah have been running the game, and running circles around the rest of the competition, at that. Then there’s Natalie (refer back to above). That leaves Ben, Denise, and Michele with three major threats to eliminate, with only two votes and a fire challenge with which to do it. Making it harder is the fact that Tony also has an idol (as does Ben, just for good measure). Nothing like a potential Survivor advantage-geddon in the finale, amirite?
Who Can Win?
Heading into the finale, Tony is the clubhouse favorite, followed by Sarah, with the Edge returnee (again, assuming Natalie) likely running in a closer-than-you-would-like third. Then probably be Ben, followed by Denise, with Michele bringing up the rear. Michele can still win, let’s be clear on that. But she has a huge uphill battle ahead of her. With another immunity win or two and a couple big moves, she could clear a path to victory. But no matter what she does at Final 6 and Final 5, she would likely have to sit next to both Ben and Denise at the end to have a chance. Likewise, Ben and Denise’s best chance is also to sit together at the end with Michele. Those three making it to the end together seems highly unlikely. You never know, but things would have to play out absolutely perfectly.
Maybe the hardest part to predict is who Natalie will align with. Natalie began the game with Michele and Ben before, once again, being voted out on the second day of the game. You can’t count on that holding much, if any weight. I think the safe assumption is that she knows she needs to play a part in taking out one or both of Sarah and Tony. Does she target them right away? Or does she work with them for one vote, hoping to gain some trust, before trying to take one out at Final 5, and either winning final immunity and dragging one with to the end or hoping the other loses in the fire challenge – maybe even taking them out herself in the challenge?
For Tony to win, I think all he needs to do is make it to Day 39, in whatever way he can. If he’s at the end, he has to win, simple as that. For Sarah to win, I think she needs to be at the end without Tony. I don’t think her beating Tony is out of the question, but being there without him would seemingly make it a sure thing. However, they have both said they would be okay losing to the other. They very well could try to wrangle their way into Final Tribal together.
Predictions!
What’s any good preview without some predictions?
Final 6
Natalie wins immunity, and Tony and Ben both play their immunity idols. Tony can’t protect Sarah and she’s voted out.
Final 5
Tony wins immunity. Tony and Ben want to vote out Natalie, unaware of her idol. They think they have Denise and Michele on board as well (while getting Denise to put her vote on Michele, to guard against a potential idol). But Natalie is able to pull in Denise and Michele, and Ben is voted out.
Final 4
Call it a gut feeling, but Natalie is built for this. She wins again and then takes a page from the Chris Underwood playbook, giving up immunity and putting herself in the fire challenge against Tony. Faith, wishful thinking, whatever you want to call it, I have to believe Winners at War will result in a proper and satisfying winner. And that means Tony defeats Natalie in the fire challenge, sending him to Final Tribal against Denise and Michele.
Final Tribal
Tony waxes the floor with Denise and Michele. Denise really only has her Sandra move. It was amazing and iconic and legendary, but it’s still only one move. And Michele caused some ruckus with the way she used the 50/50 coin, but that’s really about it. But nothing these two can say even comes close to matching the game Tony played. Even with that, though, Tony won’t get the clean sweep. There are 16 votes; that’s too many for a double shut out. I think there will be some respect for Natalie’s game, earning her a handful of votes. And I think Michele could wiggle her way to a vote or two. I’ll make the call of a Tony win by way of a 10-5-1 vote.
I am way more nervous about a reality game show than I have any right to be, but that’s the hell wrought by the Edge of Extinction. I don’t care who the returnee is, I will lose my mind if s/he comes back and wins the game. We need to see Tony and/or Sarah at the end. There’s no reasonable way a jury could award anyone the win over either of those two. This could very well be the most heavily anticipated finale in Survivor history, and even with the potential for disaster, I cannot wait to see it play out.
