Well folks, we made it. After 23 up and down, twist-filled episodes, we’ve reached the finale of Australian Survivor: Brains V Brawn. It’s been a season of extremely high highs (George and Hayley’s strategic dominance), and disappointingly low lows (nearly every twist that production trotted out to the Outback).
But even with all the issues this season had, we’re still left with a phenomenal Final 3. I think it’s clearly the strongest Final 3 in any season of Australian Survivor. It must be the Survivor gods rewarding the patient fans for making it through this absurd season. There was plenty of good, to be sure. But the constant twists were way too much, especially since they were almost all terrible. The chances that the season would end with such a strong Final 3 feels impossible. And yet here we are. So let’s get into what could be to come in Sunday’s finale.
First, I’ll get my personal opinions on the finalists out of the way. For what it’s worth (not much, I assume), my votes would go as:
Hayley over George and Flick; George over Flick
Absolutely nothing against Flick. I like her a lot, and I think she’s played a great game. In a vacuum, any of these three is more than a worthy winner. It’s just what I look for and value in a winner’s game is better represented by Hayley and George, is all. But I won’t be disappointed by a Flick win. Not by a long shot.
But, since my opinions have less than no value in the actual game, the more fun part is speculating how this group of jurors will vote. And I think the one clear (as clear as something can be in Survivor, at least) thing is this: Flick wins hands down against either George or Hayley. I don’t think it would be a clean 9-0 sweep. But an easy 7-2, maybe 6-3, vote sounds about right. If Flick wins the final immunity challenge, the only interesting part will likely be how she decides who take between George and Hayley.
But what could George or Hayley do to stand a chance against Flick? Both would have an uphill battle, no doubt. But we’ve seen a strong Final Tribal performance sway an Australian jury before (looking at you, season 1). And we’ve seen a poor Final Tribal performance potentially cost someone a win (what’s up, season 3).
George is a talker. He can spin anything in his favor. He’s been the main strategic force in the game, with Hayley close behind. And that’s the biggest weakness in Flick’s game. She has the social charm, the story, challenges, and three Brawns on the jury who I expect are squarely on her side. But she’s done next to nothing strategically this game. Maybe actually nothing. That would have to be their opening.
Hayley has also been very strong strategically, while also being a challenge beast. She may have some bad blood on her hands, but I still think she’s played an effective social game. Her social game hasn’t been as strong as Flick’s – at least not in relation to the jury – but she’s easily the most well-rounded player of the three. I think she would need to focus on that, while stressing Flick’s strategic shortcomings.
Going up against Flick, Hayley and George might be able to use recency bias to their advantage. Perhaps Flick’s biggest strategic blunders came at the last two votes. With an immunity idol and an immunity win, she was in a power position for two crucial votes. And yet, she was still unable to send her target to the jury. That’s a critical time to be on the right side of the vote, and she couldn’t do it, even with her added power.
I think Hayley would stand a better chance against Flick, because of her well-rounded game. George could really only focus on the strategy, while Hayley has more of her game to pull from. The one thing George has that Hayley doesn’t, however, is Cara. She would be a no doubt vote for George. The question then is, can she sway the jury? My inclination is no. You never know, she might surprise us. But nothing from what we’ve seen from her on the season indicates to me she could pull it off. But, it’s quite possible Hayley and George could fill that role as well. I would imagine they would be more inclined to vote for each other, and they might have the ability to get the jury to see things their way.
With the assumption that Flick wins against either Hayley or George, a George/Hayley Final 2 is where things would get very interesting. By all accounts, it would make for a tremendous Final Tribal. We know George will own his game. He already has time and again. Hayley, I’m sure, would do the same. While George probably has the slight edge in strategic play, it’s close enough in my eyes where it’s basically a wash. Challenges no doubt go to Hayley. Outside of Cara, Hayley also probably has the edge on the social front.
George could also play up the underdog story. Everyone loves an underdog; it could speak to the jury. The hardest thing here, however, is that it happened so early in the game. Once the merge hit, George was never truly in trouble. At least not like he was in the first few days. But there’s a reason he’s been referred to as the cockroach this season. There’s something to be said for simply surviving until the end.
Then there’s the jury itself. You can be as analytical as you want, but at the end of the day, you just never know what each jury member is going to base their vote on. That feels even more relevant this season, with this jury. There are exceptions, but the overall view of the game from the jury feels much more like a casual fan than a long-time, die-hard fan like George and Hayley. And there’s nothing wrong with that.
But they could be more singularly focused. Emmett, for example, likely will vote for whoever he believes best exemplified the “Brawn” game. However, it also means that they could go completely off book and really surprise us. I’m doubting that, but with what we’ve seen happen this season, you’d be a fool to completely count it out.
That could be a hidden blessing for Hayley or George should they find themselves up against Flick at the end. As solid as it feels that all three Brawns would vote for Flick, with the way this season has gone, you just never know.
Those same Brawns have shown more of an affinity towards Hayley than to George. But enough where they could be convinced to vote for her over Flick, one of their own? Probably not, but….this is Survivor, after all. But if it’s a Hayley/George final, that could be enough to give Hayley the win.
Alright, it’s prediction time. The final immunity challenge is going to be some kind of physical torture challenge. With no puzzles in play, George comes in as the clear underdog. Hayley will enter the challenge as the favorite, but it’s far from a sure thing. It’s felt for a while now that the season has been building to George’s downfall, and I think both Flick and Hayley would prefer their chances against George than against each other. While Flick’s edit has been very good, Hayley’s feels like more of a winner’s edit to me. I couldn’t point to anything specific, that’s just my gut feeling. If you disagree, well, I wouldn’t argue.
I’m predicting Hayley wins the final immunity, takes George with her to the end, and wins. I’m going to say it’s a 7-2 vote, with Cara and Wai voting for George. But honestly, I don’t think any result will surprise me. I’m just excited to see it play out. And be sure to check back here after the finale for the full breakdown and probably some more final thoughts on the season.
