We just had a double episode last week, and now we’re hit with the merge? Count me in 100% for that. I say this every season – and I’ll likely say it in my recap too – but the merge episode is often one of the strongest of the season. This season should be no different. But the one new consideration is the Edge of Extinction twist. We will finally get to see how it will play out, at least to an extent. But before we get into all that, let’s quickly run down who stands where in the game.
Kama
Aurora Joe Julia Julie Ron
Lesu
David Kelley Lauren Wardog
Manu
Eric Gavin Victoria
Extinction Island
Reem Keith Chris Rick Aubry Wendy
And the preview for this week’s episode.
Edge of Extinction
As the preview shows, one of the six from Extinction Island is coming back into the game. While we don’t get much of a glimpse into what the challenge is, the bamboo sticks found on Extinction Island have led many to believe an element of the Jailbreak challenge will come into play. The quick shot of the challenge doesn’t look like it, however. But it’s easy to see a way where it’s incorporated into a new challenge.
But even without knowing the challenge specifics, here’s how I would power rank the six castaways for this challenge.
Rick
Aubry
Chris
Reem
Wendy
Keith
Rick didn’t stand out as a challenge beast, but he always came off as more than capable. Aubry has proven herself a solid challenge competitor as well. Chris would be the odds-on favorite if not for the knots Keith is likely to give him. But even still, I doubt the show gives him something that takes him completely out of the challenge. We didn’t get to see very much from Reem, so that’s kind of a shot in the dark. But she seems like she can handle herself okay in most challenges. Wendy pretty much ends up in the fifth spot by default, even though she has generally performed well. Keith has not done one single impressive thing this season, especially in challenges.
Once the challenge is over, a few questions will still remain:
Is this the end of Extinction Island? I really hope so. I don’t like the idea of players coming back into the game after the merge. However, I don’t think the show is done with it yet.
If not, are the other five officially eliminated from the game? My gut says no, but I’m going against my gut and saying yes.
If Extinction Island remains, how many more will come back into the game, and when? I think one more player comes back into the game. Right now we’re at 12, soon to be 13, and likely back down to 12 by the end of the episode (unless they pull another double tribal, which seems highly unlikely). And I think it happens when there are 9 or 10 players left. Any less than that, and it’s just too deep into the game to have someone re-enter.
The Real Game
In addition to all the Edge of Extinction stories to deal with, there is still the rest of the typical merge events. One will be who finds the idol and advantage that are almost surely now in the game. There is probably a hidden idol like there is at any new beach. And I would wager there is a clue to an advantage hidden at the merge feast. The only question is whether or not someone finds that clue now or later. This cast seems to be pretty on top of this kind of thing (or at least enough players are on top of it), so I have to think at least the clue is found.
The other major question left is who will be the merge boot? I can realistically see this going one of a number of ways, laid out below.
The Obvious Vote
Yes, this is Joe, but it isn’t only Joe. Everyone knows the challenge threat Joe is. If he doesn’t win immunity, voting him out has to be in the discussion. True, it’s unlikely he would go on a challenge run for the entire rest of the way, but if anyone could do it, he would be at the top of the list. The other obvious choice would be whoever comes back into the game from Extinction Island. It would be an easy idea for the rest of the players to get behind. But I could see the returning player granted automatic immunity at the first Tribal Council, but if s/he is not immune, they could be an easy target.
The Returning Players
There has been lots of talk surrounding getting the returning players out. Now that everyone is on one tribe, there should be enough people on board to vote one of them out. Now Joe fits into both of these categories, but I think there’s a very good chance he wins the first immunity challenge. If Aubry wins the Extinction challenge, she also fits into both. Kelley has idol, and she tends to have a good feeling for when to play an idol. But David has nothing. No idol, no majority alliance. If he’s vulnerable at Tribal, it could be his time to go (but maybe just to Extinction Island).
I would have to think voting out the returning players early is going to be a priority, especially if Aubry makes it back into the game. Nobody wants any of them even sniffing the end of the game.
The Typical Merge Boot
Again, Joe fits right into this mold. But Gavin and Eric could stick out as potential challenge threats. And the rest of the Kama tribe, just because they have won everything (thanks mostly to Joe) could be assumed to be physical threats.
The Right Hand (Wo)Man Vote
This is mainly Aurora if Joe wins immunity. If they can’t vote out Joe, might as well vote out his biggest ally. But Kelley and Lauren would also fit, though both have an immunity idol. Kelley and Wardog might fall under this section as well, at least to an outsider, as I’m not sure how close Kelley feels to Wardog anymore. And if Rick comes back into the game, he and David would probably pick up right where they left off.
There are certainly many other possibilities for the merge boot, but those are the biggest and/or most interesting to me. As for who I ultimately think it will be? Well, I’m going cheat hedge my bets and give different predictions for a few different scenarios.
Joe does not win immunity
In this case, Joe goes home. He has to. He’s too big of a threat, and he doesn’t have a large enough alliance to protect himself.
Joe wins immunity and the returning player is immune from the first vote
This is where it would get interesting, because two easy options are off the table. I think Aurora makes the most sense here. She is really Joe’s only true ally. If the goal is to vote him out, take away any tools he has to work with in the game. But if not Aurora (though she would be my official guess) I think David would have a big target on his back.
Joe wins immunity and the returning player is not immune from the first vote
While I’m not dumb enough to say it would be a 100% slam dunk, I would bet the returning player is voted out. It would be something everyone could agree on and be at peace with. I feel even more confident if the returning player is Aubry. If it’s not Aubry, there is definitely some wiggle room. Rick is so likable and doesn’t present himself as an obvious threat. I could easily seem him talking his way into an alliance. I think everyone would realize Reem would be tough to live with, so I think she would be gone.
As for Wendy, I think everyone has had enough of her by this point. Even if she is the perfect goat, I don’t think anyone feels like they can trust her. I go back and forth on Keith. I don’t think anyone sees him as any sort of threat, and he would be as likely as anyone to pledge his loyalty to a group who keeps him in the game. And while I think Chris’s chances of making it back into the game are slim to none, he would be easy merge boot as well.
Top 5 Likeliest Merge Boots
Ranking things is always more fun, so might as well do it here to summarize my thoughts from above.
Joe
Whoever returns from Extinction Island
David
Aurora
Wardog
I struggled with the fifth spot. I thought about Eric or Gavin, as they might come off as physical and social threats. But Wardog could get under the other castaways’ skin quite easily. And even though he hasn’t been particularly impressive in challenges, his physical appearance still gives off that impression.
So Who’s Winning This Thing?
This is always a fool’s errand, but feels even more so this season. With Manu and Lesu hogging all the losses, we saw very little of the other tribes’ camp lives. And it’s even more random as we don’t know yet how long Extinction Island will remain in play. But there’s no fun in not making predictions, so here’s how I would rank the remaining players in likelihood of winning.
Victoria
Kelley
Gavin
Eric
Lauren
David
Joe
Wardog
Julie
Ron
Julia
Aurora
Whoever comes back from Extinction Island
Victoria really impressed me last week. She showed us hints of advanced gameplay, but it was all on display during the two-hour block. My biggest concern is that she won’t be able to hide her strategic chops, and will come out swinging too big too early. But she doesn’t exactly look the part of your typical big threat. And I think she will be able to use that to her advantage.
Even with the proverbial “returning player” stench, I think Kelley is in a good spot. She’s sneaky, she has an idol, and she has a (seemingly) tight-knit relationship with Lauren, who also has an idol.
Down at the bottom, we simply haven’t seen enough out of Julie, Ron, Julia, or Aurora. With that said, the little bit we have seen of Ron and Julia has at least been positive. But we have barely seen anything out of Julia and Aurora. Julia only just received her first confessional last week. And Aurora, well, Aurora has this.
While I don’t give either of them much, if any, chance at winning, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see one or both of them make deep runs. Though Aurora could see an early exit as Joe’s closest ally. As for everyone else in between?
Alright, that might be a bit of a stretch, but I’m quickly getting into full-on Game of Thrones hype, so it is what is. But anyway, let’s all sit back and enjoy what will hopefully be another great post-merge stretch of Survivor.
