This is an unprecedented Survivor finale. As the game currently stands, 16 players are still in contention for the title of Sole Survivor. Yes, that number will dwindle to six within the opening minutes of the finale. But until that plays out, the fact remains, 16 players can still win this game. Whether you think the Edge of Extinction twist is good or bad (it’s bad) at the very least it provides an interesting wrinkle heading into the end of the season.
The Story
I would imagine the production team found this to be a tricky season to edit. They had the normal footage, beach life and challenges and all that. That’s not small thing. But then there are the inhabitants on Extinction Island. They need to be included somehow, but they have nothing to do during their days. There can’t be too much interesting footage to show. But one of these players is coming back into the game. That person will have just as good of chance at winning as any of the other five still in the “real” game.
That player’s story needs to be edited in such a way that fans aren’t thrown for a loop when he or she comes back. But they can’t make it so obvious that we know which player is coming back. Let’s just pretend it’s Joe. If all of a sudden the show focuses on him, gets him talking a little bit, it would be a dead giveaway that he’s coming back. So I’m very curious to see who comes back and how much we’ve seen of that person up until now.
Who’s Left
Game Proper
Devens Gavin Julie Lauren Victoria
Extinction Island (in order of when they went to Extinction)
Reem Chris Aubry Joe Eric Julia David Wentworth Wardog Ron Aurora
Advantages/Idols
Devens and Lauren each have an immunity idol. There are no advantages, and so help me God if the Extinction player comes back with an idol, advantage, or some other form of protection.
Who Has a Reasonable Shot at Winning?
Devens is the apparent front-runner, but I wouldn’t be so quick to crown him the winner just win. I agree with the masses that if he makes it to the end, he wins. No doubt about that. But he has the toughest path to the Final 3. He does have the aforementioned immunity idol, which means he needs to win at least one of the immunity challenges at final 6 or final 5. And I wouldn’t put it past him; he’s been a challenge beast this season. So who is standing in the way of Devens walking to Final Tribal?
Gavin has also been mostly great in challenges so far. Lauren has proven capable at the very least, though she hasn’t been able to pull out a win yet. And don’t forget Julie won the first individual immunity challenge of the season. Then there’s whoever comes back from Extinction Island. There are plenty of legitimate challenge competitors who could pose a threat to Devens. Joe, David, Wentworth, and Aurora are all established challenge threats. Chris and Eric certainly have the physicality to contend in most challenges. In other words, Devens’ safety is far from guaranteed.
But challenge performance is only one part of the game. Since I believe a Devens win is locked in if he makes it to the end, what might happen if he falters and is voted out? I’ll go through my actual predictions below, but let’s lay out the case for those left.
Devens
He won his way back into the game from Extinction Island. He’s won three individual immunities. He saved himself with a hidden immunity idol. He’s been theatrical, funny, entertaining. His back has been up against the wall and yet still he remains. He has the winner’s edit. But does all that make a Devens win too obvious?
Also, don’t forget that post-merge he has only voted correctly on 3/8 votes. That’s a fact that could certainly be used against him at Final Tribal.
Gavin
He’s played a good, not great, game. He’s done well in challenges, he’s well-liked, he’s voted correctly the majority of the time. But what can he point to as a signature move? Yes, he’s only been wrong on one post-merge vote, but will he be able to claim any of those votes as his? That will be key.
His goal has to be to get to the end with Julie and Victoria. Sitting next to them at Final Tribal should secure him the win. If Lauren takes either of their places, it becomes trickier.
Julie
She won one individual immunity challenge, but hasn’t done much else of note in quite some time. Even still though, there have been stretches with her heavily featured. That fact leaves the door open for a Julie win, but it really feels like a long shot for her right now.
Lauren
Lauren is very similar to Gavin. There’s a lot to like about what she’s done in the game so far, but can she effectively convey that to the jury? She’s been somewhat under the radar. It could prove difficult to explain her place in the game.
I think her best bet is to play up her underdog status. Tell a story of how hard she had to work to stay in the game. And beat home the fact she held onto her immunity idol for almost an entire season. She should use that to point towards how in tune she was with the tribe dynamics. She never played it because she knew she didn’t have to.
Like Gavin, if she can make it to Final Tribal with Julie and Victoria, I think she would win. If Gavin’s there, it becomes more of a toss-up.
Victoria
I think she’s played a great game. She’s been on the right side of the vote every time save for the TC when Devens played his idol. But even then she was in on the Devens/Ron vote split plan. However, her biggest hurdle lies in the fact that she may have been much in the shadows. If she makes it to Final Tribal, she could find it difficult to convince the jury of her true impact on the game.
Extinction Island Returnee
This is tricky. Logic would say the jury wouldn’t vote for someone who has been out of the “real” game for so long. But that becomes less certain when so much of the jury is made of others who were in that same position. Could they have formed some sort of agreement to vote for the returning player should he or she make it to the end? That would infuriate me, but it’s absolutely a possibility.
But I don’t think it’s going to matter. I think whoever comes back is going to be Target 1B to Devens’ 1A. Since we know Devens is immune at Final 6 regardless, I think the returning player is the likeliest consensus choice at that point. But it would make things very interesting if this player did find their way to Final Tribal.
Extinction Challenge
Who Comes Back
Aside from her boot episode, we’ve seen next to nothing from Julia. She’s out. Wardog is the worst challenge performer on the season. He’s not coming back. We’ve gotten a little bit out of Chris and Eric, but it feels like we would have seen a little bit more if it was either of them. Though keep in mind there have been multiple instances of Chris talking about his failure to play a “perfect game.” It could just be good content, but it could also hint at him making a final run at Sole Survivor.
Reem is a wildcard. We’ve only seen her in one challenge, so it’s hard to make any sort of accurate assessment of her challenge prowess. And while we’ve seen tons of her at Extinction Island, is that because she wins her way back into the game? Or is it because she’s hilarious and makes for great TV? I’m thinking the latter. She’s been on Extinction too long. I have to believe it’s going to be a tough, physical challenge. She has to be weak and depleted. I’d LOVE to see her come back; I just don’t see it happening. But can you imagine Reem at Final Tribal Council. TV gold!
That leaves Aurora, Ron, and the four returnees in Aubry, David, Joe, and Wentworth. From a story standpoint, any of them makes sense. Aurora and Ron were in the “real” game long enough for fans to get to know them. The other four were well-known to fans before the season started. From these six, I’m going to say Joe wins, getting himself back in the game. And my reasoning? It’s a challenge and he’s Joey Amazing. I’m playing the odds. I don’t care what the challenge is. If they run it 100 times Joe would end up with the most wins. I’m just following the numbers, as unscientific as they may be.
Final 6
I’m feeling Lauren in the Final 3. And that means she likely wins at least one immunity challenge, and I think she gets that win here. And that means she and Devens are both safe. Devens won’t take any chances and uses his idol to secure his spot in the Final 5. As a result, Joe is immediately voted out again. Yes, Devens brought up the idea of working with whoever comes back from Extinction Island. But I think there will be legitimate fear of that player being a serious jury threat.
Whether or not it’s Joe, I think the returning player’s only chance to survive is to win immunity. Everyone will still want to target Devens but if he loses immunity, they have to assume he would use his idol in that scenario.
Final 5
Gavin wins, Lauren plays her idol because it’s her last chance to play it, so of course she does. No matter how safe she feels, there’s no reason not to play it. And with Devens finally vulnerable, he is voted out.
Final 4
Gavin wins again and takes brings Julie with to the end. While he and Victoria have been close all season, Julie is the clear-cut easiest person to beat. She’s not a goat in the traditional sense, but that seems to be role she has unfortunately fallen into. Lauren beats Victoria in the fire-making challenge.
Final Tribal
The votes here could be wild. We have a 13 person jury, and some of the jury members have exactly zero first-hand experience with this final three. This season could be the one where the most votes ever are decided at Final Tribal.
Gavin’s challenge prowess should give him a bit of a head start. From there it comes down to who between Gavin and Lauren (sorry Julie) can best take ownership of moves made in the game. That could prove tough for both of them, to the point where neither gains an edge. In the end I think the immunity wins will separate Gavin just enough.
And with that, newlywed Gavin narrowly wins season 38, by way of a 7-6-0 vote (Lauren receives 6 votes).
Note: Devens was my episode 1 winner pick, so he would still be my *official* winner pick.
Final(ish) Word on Edge of Extinction
I will get into my final thoughts on the season as a whole in my finale recap, but I’ll touch on it here to close out the preview. Devens and Reem saved this season. Sure, other players provided some fun moments, but it was mostly these two. Devens gave us big moment after big moment and Reem held down the fort at Extinction Island. But as a season as a whole? A bit of a let-down. And the Edge of Extinction twist? Big time pass. I’m working on my complete series rankings, and I’m struggling with where to put this season. I don’t have an exact spot, but my initial feeling is likely 20-30, with the potential to slightly move up or down depending how the finale goes.
The Survivor: Edge of Extinction finale airs Wednesday, 5/15, at 8/7 CT on CBS. Be sure to check back here (sometime) after the episode for a full recap.
