Survivor: David vs. Goliath has been garnering rave reviews from the moment host Jeff Probst welcomed the new castaways onto the beach in Fiji. It started off hot and has not taken one second to slow down. We had Natalie Napalm, Jacketgate, the man of a thousand nicknames in John Hennigan, Christian’s epic six hour immunity win, Angelina giving up immunity for more rice, Angelina telling her mom about giving up immunity for more rice, Angelina not wanting any reciprocity for giving up immunity for more rice but then being mad for not being chosen to go on a reward even though she had given up immunity for more rice, and many other great moments.
If you’re taking the time to read this, you likely don’t need a reminder, but just in case, here is the DvG final six:
Kara Kay Angelina Keeley Alison Raybould Davie Rickenbacker Mike White Nick Wilson
While not everyone is seen as a leading threat (more on that just below) heading into the finale, each castaway does have a shot at winning. With said, however, I do see two distinct groups: Kara, Davie, Mike, and Nick as the clear-cut strongest contenders; and Alison and Angelina below them as possible “goat” targets – though to be fair, their goat status is only in the context of this season. Their gameplay has not been that of a prototypical goat. Now let’s take a quick look at each of the remaining six castaways.
Alison
Alison has played a quiet game, so she would need to make some moves in the finale to become a real threat to win. Winning one or two immunity challenges could go a long way in paving her way to a win. She would also like to orchestrate at least one of the remaining votes. And there’s always the final four fire-making challenge. It’s worth noting that both winners of that challenge (Ben Driebergen and Wendell Holland) went on to win the game. Granted, they were both in stronger positions than Alison, but still, worth keeping in mind.
It’s also interesting to consider that she is someone other players are wanting to bring to the final three. That might make her a potential target as the four threats could then see her as a threat as well; not a threat to win, but a threat to their chance at making it to FTC. After all, one spot in the Final 3 is one fewer spot available. However, there have been numerous instances of Alison being discussed as a major threat in the game, something that hasn’t been reflected in her edit. So she might be more a target than we might think.
She is likely doing more behind the scenes that, for whatever reason, hasn’t made it the on-air footage. That would lead me to believe that she does not make FTC. Even if she makes it and gets zero votes, you would think production would want to highlight one of the final three players more than Alison has been.
Angelina
If I were going to give 1-6 rankings for the remaining players, Angelina would likely come in at #6. Her fumble of the handling of the Elizabeth vote lost her the game. Those events eroded any (or at least a good chunk of ) trust she had built up leading up to that point. Yes, she gave up immunity to get more rice for the tribe (had I mentioned that already?) but that kind of move is often seen as a self-serving end-game move, rather than a “for the greater good” sacrifice. And the fact that she keeps talking about it (while at the same time telling everyone she doesn’t want anything in return for it) has to be rubbing people the wrong way.
I think Angelina has the easiest path to FTC, but the hardest path to win. She is as much of a goat as there is this season. I’m not sure who she could sit next to and be seen as the favorite. Alison and Mike? That has to be her best chance but even then I don’t see how she would receive enough votes over both of them. The biggest question for Angelina might be this. With everyone seeing her as an easy victory at FTC, does that make her a target? The same as with Alison, if she’s in the final three, that’s one less open spot. But I still bet she makes it to the end.
And I need her in the end like I need air to breathe. That would be electric, assuming she brings up the whole rice deal…yet AGAIN. Something we could all but guarantee she would do. And remember, she can negotiate discounts at restaurants, so maybe she can negotiate some votes?
Davie
Davie has played well from the start. His problem might be that he is peaking at the wrong time. He has made himself a highly visible threat. He should be a possible target the next vote, and the next if he’s still around. If he can work his way into the final three, he should win, at least based on how things stand now. Nick would probably be his biggest threat. If he’s in any Final 3 devoid of Nick, he should win, and win easily But if he were to find himself in the end with any combination of Kara, Mike, and Nick, it would be a tougher fight than he would like.
Kara
It feels like Kara is being overlooked at this point. True, she maybe doesn’t have a big or notable move to her name, but what could you point to as a move or action that was truly detrimental to her game? I’d argue there’s nothing. Everyone likes her, she’s performed well in the challenges, winning immunity once. As far as strategy and votes go, she has not been afraid to get involved. That attitude, if she can turn it into results, could serve her well in the last days of the game.
Mike
Mike might have made his best – and maybe the game’s biggest – move last week by orchestrating the Christian vote. The question will be whether or not he can take ownership of it. If he can, it might be enough to give him an edge. He was able to organize the movement against the consensus biggest threat in the game. Everyone on and off the island knew that Christian would win against anyone if he made it to the end. But if he can’t truly own the move, he doesn’t have anything else at this point that he could point to and really hang his hat on. Additionally, will the jury want to award $1 million to someone as successful and famous as Mike White. He played Ned Schneebly for crying out loud! It’s an unfair justification to not vote for someone, but it’s certainly a consideration that some might make.
Nick
After a rough start, Nick has played a (mostly) consistently strong game. But it’s fair to say the last couple episodes haven’t been his best. His focus has to be on Davie, his biggest threat to a victory. Nick would likely still win sitting next any Final 3 without Davie. It would be risky, but he may want to wait until the final five vote to go after Davie. If Davie goes out at six, Nick might be left as the biggest perceived threat.
Final Predictions
Davie is voted out at six, and Alison at five, leaving Angelina, Kara, Mike, and Nick in the Final Four. Nick wins the last immunity challenge and chooses to bring Angelina with him to the Final 3. Kara defeats Mike in the fire-making challenge. Nick wins David Vs. Goliath with a vote of 7-3-0, with Kara receiving three votes.
There are two things specifically that I’m going to be watching for that might (hopefully will) make this finale a bit more compelling. First will be the immunity challenges. As I’ve noted in my recent recaps, there has been a strong focus on standing on something uncomfortable and balancing a thing. I’m hoping that it means the show is saving one or two big-time physical challenges for the end. Since we haven’t seen any physical challenges recently (at least not full individual ones) I’ll be curious to see how the remaining castaways perform this late in the game. While an ending puzzle is often the great equalizer in these challenges, it’s still something worth keeping in mind.
Second will be the fire making challenge and the ultimate results. In both instances (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers and Ghost Island), the results were the same. The winner of the fire challenge won the game (Ben and Wendell); the winner of the final four immunity was first runner-up (Chrissy and Dom); and the contestant who was taken to the end was the second runner-up (Ryan and Laurel). Will this season buck the trend? And if it doesn’t, that would make three seasons in a row with the exact same results. With how divisive the challenge already is, would this lead to more fan outrage? And would Jeff Probst and the rest of the production team consider tweaking it for future seasons?
Tune in Wednesday at 8/7 CT to see how it all unfolds. And be sure to check back here on Thursday morning for a full recap and some final thoughts on what has been simply a stellar season.
