*Live look at me before every Survivor merge episode*
The merge episode is often one of the strongest of each Survivor season. And with how fun and good David vs. Goliath has been so far, I have some high hopes for the upcoming merge. With that in mind, I’ll do a quick rundown of where we’re at in the season and a little preview of what could be in store for the rest of the season.
To start, this is who will be coming into the merge, in alphabetical order, with their original tribe noted in parentheses.
Alec (G)
Alison (G)
Angelina (G)
Carl (D)
Christian (D)
Dan (G)
Davie (D)
Elizabeth (D)
Gabby (D)
John (G)
Kara (G)
Mike (G)
Nick (D)
For those counting at home, that leaves the Goliaths with a perceived 7-6 advantage. But as always happens, the longer the season goes on, the more those original tribe lines begin to blur. There were three Tribal Council with the swapped tribes and two of those saw an original Goliath go home. Now of course it’s possible that the Goliaths will come together at first, but I wouldn’t be so sure about that.
We’ve already seen Christian bonding with John and Dan. While John and Dan may not feel super close to Gabby, Christian still does, so that might be enough to protect her. Nick and Mike seemed to have formed a bond as well. Alec was the first to turn on the Goliaths. Why would he hesitate to do so again?
Before I run through how I see the contenders stacking up, let’s do a quick review of idols and advantages; there aren’t many.
Idols
Davie
Dan (2)
These idols could provide some fun fireworks. Davie seems like a smart enough player. I think he will find a good time to use his idol, whether he uses it on himself or one of his allies.
Dan on the hand, I’m not as confident about. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he goes home with both idols in his pocket. He’s playing a decent enough game right now, but he’s not playing as well as he thinks he is. That’s the kind of overconfidence that can lead to a brutal blindside.
Advantages
Carl > Idol Nullifier
I have mixed feelings about this. I love the idea of the nullifier. And I especially love it for this season because it’s the first time it’s been used in a season. No player except Carl (and whoever he may end up telling) knows it exists. If he is able to use it correctly, that Tribal Council is going to be wild. But if he mis-plays it? It will be a complete dud. If used incorrectly, only Carl will know the attempt was even made.
Where everyone stands
*Quick disclaimer: If you followed any of the pre-season news, you know two players broke their NDA and posted some social media pictures together, potentially forfeiting their prize money from this season. In case you hadn’t heard, or you are aware but have kept yourself from finding out which players were involved, I will not name them. I will not say whether one, both, or neither made the merge. For either that might still be in the game, I would include them with the rest of the “No Chance” group. I can’t realistically see anyone risking a $1 million prize for a few IG pictures.*
Lists are not in any sort of ranked order; they will be alphabetical.
No Chance
Nope, not a mistake. While there are certainly those in the next group that are less likely to win, I can see some sort of path to victory for every player left.
Have a chance
Alec
Alison
Angelina
Carl
Dan
Elizabeth
Gabby
Kara
Mike
Alec, Alison, and Mike were the closest I came to including in the “No Chance” group. Alec and Alison have been as invisible as anyone. And Alec’s move against Natalia made no sense. Sure it’s one move and it was early one, but it doesn’t seem to bode well for his strategic abilities. For Mike, fair or not (it’s not), do you think anyone will vote to give Hollywood millionaire Mike another million dollars? Honestly, though, if not for that one simple fact, Mike would have found himself listed as Favorite. Watch out for Alec as a potential merge vote this week.
Angelina has proven herself to be a strong strategic player, but has maybe shown her hand too early. Everyone who has played with her will have noticed this. That’s not how you want to be viewed at this point in the game. She could be a possible merge boot.
Unless I’m forgetting something, Carl hasn’t really done anything to give me a strong feeling one way or the other. That could be an argument for “No Chance,” but he at least has seemingly been able to forge some good connections. He’s been a hard worker at camp too. Unless he comes out and clashes with the rest of the tribe, he could fly under the radar for a few votes.
Dan, even with two idols, could find himself victim of a blindside if he’s not careful. At the very least every remaining Goliath member knows about one of his idols, which is already reason enough to consider targeting someone. And as I already mentioned, he has a pretty high opinion of his game so far. He could become a little bit too comfortable with his position in the game.
Elizabeth’s game was strong up until the most recent episode. The whole shelter argument was not a good look for her. Maybe that blow-up will be just a one-time thing. But even if it is, it still happened once. That might be enough to put a target on her back, even if not immediately.
I do worry some about Gabby and her emotions. She’s been a crier this season, and that might worry some of her allies. It might make them think she can’t control her emotions, and that can prove to be a dangerous liability.
Kara was another one who I was close to putting in the “No Chance” group. Like Carl, I can’t really remember her doing all that much. She could find herself victim of a showmance elimination if she can’t control her and Dan’s relationship. But if she uses it like she originally said she would – solely as a strategic means – then she might be okay. But all in all, I don’t really see her as having much of a game plan moving forward.
Favorites
Christian
Davie
John
Nick
Christian might just run away with this thing if the rest of the castaways aren’t careful. He definitely has a Cochran-like feel going right now. He will have to manage a few things to make it to the end. One would be forming too many friendships, whether or not they double as alliances. Everyone seems to love this guy, and with good reason. But being too well-liked is just as likely to get you voted out as anything else. The other, possibly surprising, aspect is challenge – yes, challenge – dominance. So many challenges now finish with a puzzle. And Christian has proved himself time and again a puzzle master. That’s going to make him a legitimate threat to win in any challenge with a puzzle, regardless of the beginning physical components.
Davie is a sneaky good player. He has an idol and he hasn’t caused any waves or rustled any feathers. He’s just kind of lying low, doing his thing. He will need to make sure he’s not doing that too well, however. Some of these early merge votes could come down to whoever is on the outside, someone who makes an easy vote.
I love me some Mayor of Slamtown. While Gabby was my episode 1 pick to win, John is probably who I would want to win out of the remaining players. I’m sure many had (inaccurate) preconceived notions about John, what with him being a WWE wrestler and all. But he has not come off as what one might stereotypically think a professional wrestler would be. He hasn’t displayed a ton of strategic chops yet. But consider that he has only been to one Tribal Council so far, so it’s not like that has been a priority for him. But his physical and social games have been fantastic. He could also find himself as a merge boot target. But he also might be able to hide behind a “dumb jock” facade to those who don’t know him as well.
Finishing with Nick, Mr. I Come Up With Terrible Alliance Names himself. He had a rough first episode, likely saved by Pat’s evacuation. But credit to him, he realized his position and really picked his game up. He’s smart, he’s likable, he seems to be at least competent in challenges. Since those first few days, he hasn’t really done anything to put himself on anyone’s sh*t list. He might run into some trouble keeping all his alliances straight. He forms them with almost any single person who will talk to him, so he needs to make sure he keeps those in order.
Merge boot
So with all that, who is going home on Wednesday night? I will name two people, my number one choice and a back-up in case that person ends up winning immunity.
Dan “Hot Cop” Rengering is my official prediction for merge boot. Alison alluded to it last week, and I think he is someone that a majority would be okay targeting. Now he does have close relationships with John and Christian. But Christian is still close with Gabby, so she might be able to convince him to “give her one,” if you will. And if Christian goes, maybe John does too? It would take a perfect acting performance to keep him comfortable, but that might be easier with him than it would be with most players.
If Dan wins immunity, I would go with Angelina. I just don’t think the David/Goliath tribe lines are going to hold. People are starting to see how aggressive she’s playing the game. That’s someone a tribe might want to vote out sooner rather than later.
So who’s going to win?
Gabby was my episode 1 winner pick, so I have to stick with her. But if I were to change, I like Davie’s chances. He’s playing well but isn’t doing it in a “loud” way. He will need to step out at some point, but he could sit back and let some of the bigger threats, either perceived or real, get picked off first. Whatever happens, though, it’s going to be a fun finish!
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